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Local/Regional » News Item Wednesday, March 21, 2001

JEFFERSON COUNTY
Louisville continues 30-year decline; county on the rise

By Butch John, The Courier-Journal

CENSUS 2000
· USA TODAY Census package
CJ Coverage:
· Lexington takes bragging rights
· Jefferson County: Louisville continues 30-year decline
· Political Boundaries: 3rd District may push into Oldham
· Oldham County: Growth changes the face of suburbia
· Bullitt County: Pace of growth accelerates
· Multiracial Choices: Over 42,000 in state use new categories
· Youth Population: State shows first net increase in 40 years
· County Breakdown: A look at the Counties
· City Breakdown: Largest 20 Cities



Fueled by an eastward expansion, Jefferson County showed moderate population growth over the last decade while its major city lost residents, Kentucky census figures showed.

The county ended 20 years of declining population with a 4.3 percent jump, to 693,604 people. The 28,677 increase gave the county its highest population since 1970, when 695,055 people were counted.

But Louisville continued a 30-year nose dive, losing more than 100,000 since 1970. The data show 256,231 city residents; the population was 361,706 in in 1970.

Some close observers discount the drop in the city's population, including Jack Dulworth, chairman of the Louisville-Jefferson County Planning Commission.

Eastern development has been good for the county, he said, but ''downtown Louisville is still the engine that drives Jefferson County as well as driving the state'' with its jobs, political power and financial and corporate clout. ''The sky is not falling in.''

Louisville's growth has also been strangled by a city-county compact that prohibited its expansion, Jefferson County Judge-Executive Rebecca Jackson said -- a circumstance that will disappear when the city and county merge in 2003.

Dulworth also predicts merger will benefit what is now the city of Louisville.

''A lot of the city-vs.-county argument will no longer be relevant other than where we drive development, and I expect that to be where we already have the infrastructure,'' he said, referring to the city.

Others see the decrease as cause for concern, fearing that merger will divert needed attention from downtown and distressed areas in favor of more affluent neighborhoods.

''It's disheartening, troubling that there's been such an imbalance in development'' between the city and other areas of the county -- particularly the east -- said Sam Watkins, executive director of the Louisville Central Community Centers.

Watkins, whose work centers on revitalizing western Louisville, said the county appears to have become a series of ''sub-downtowns,'' supplying the needs of suburban residents who seldom venture into downtown Louisville.

These smaller communities showed moderate growth. Jeffersontown's 26,633 residents represented an increase of 14.7 percent over 1990; to the south, Fern Creek's population rose 8.9 percent to 17,870 residents.

Middletown grew 14.5 percent, Pewee Valley 11.9 percent, and Anchorage 8.7 percent.

When suburban dwellers do come to town, Watkins said, it's generally to attend events along the riverfront or in connection with a holiday festival.

''When you look beyond just the numbers of people moving, you see investment strategy moving in the same direction,'' Watkins said. ''There is tremendous development, roads, highways -- even expressways designed to move people away from the urban areas.''

But ''people moved where there was available land,'' Jackson said. ''That's been the fate of the nation since the first boat arrived.''

Much of the commerce -- shopping, movie theaters, restaurants -- followed the migration to the county, she said. But Louisville retained the financial district, the arts district and health-care facilities.

At the moment, the suburbs continue to hold sway over the city for people looking at moving to the Louisville area, said real estate agent Ken James, who has lived in Louisville for 25 years. Houses are generally newer, and to many families the suburbs seemed safer and cleaner, he said.

James, who works primarily in the eastern suburbs, says his customers seldom ask about downtown or areas nearby. Eastern Jefferson County has been ''a popular place to live for a long time. This is nothing new,'' he said.

Most people who come to him ''live here or have talked to somebody, or know somebody who works here and have told them to go to the East End,'' he said. ''There's just not a lot of viable places to live downtown. People come down for the arts centers, convention center and baseball stadium, then go home.''

Given the speed with which new subdivisions rise from barren ground, James said he expects the eastern portion of the county to be developed to Shelbyville in another 10 years.

Dulworth said he believes Louisville is about to turn around in terms of population and popularity as a place to spend time.

Mayor Dave Armstrong has committed himself to establishing downtown as a place to, as Armstrong says, ''live, work and play,'' with plans for new housing and entertainment in the center city.

Dulworth also said Jefferson County appears to be in the last throes of post-World War II flight to suburbia. Some of the older suburbs have begun to deteriorate, he said, and land is no longer inexpensive.

All four corners of Jefferson County are about developed out, he said.

''The boom to move away from the center city to the suburbs is about to peak out,'' Dulworth said. ''The census numbers aren't promising now, but I think this will be the start of the circle to come back to the city.''


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