Expect the Liberal Punditocracy
When George Bush is sworn in as president for four more years on Thursday, expect the liberal punditocracy to once again attribute his victory to the rise of the Christian right in America.
The only difference is that we now know they were wrong.
Polling and analysis done by the Pew Research Centre and other experts since election night has shown that, in fact:
(a) Bush made relatively bigger gains with non-religious voters than religious ones.
(b) The percentage of voters who identified themselves as evangelicals, at 23%, was exactly the same in 2004 as in 2000.
(c) There was no increase in the percentage of pro-life voters.
(d) Overall, voters in 2004 were slightly less religiously observant than in 2000.
(e) Bush did not do significantly better in 2004 compared to 2000 in the 11 states which held gay marriage referendums.
(f) While Bush did slightly better with evangelicals compared to 2000, only 14% of all Bush supporters said they voted for him primarily because of his religious faith, compared to 29% who cited his leadership and 27% his stand on the issues.
''Every election year, we in the commentariat come up with a storyline to explain the result, and the storyline has to have two features. First, it has to be completely wrong. Second, it has to reassure liberals that they are morally superior to the people who just defeated them ... This theory certainly flatters liberals, and it is certainly wrong ... (The) same insularity that caused many liberals to lose touch with the rest of the country now causes them to simplify, misunderstand and condescend to the people who voted for Bush.''
By The Christian right in America
When George Bush is sworn in as president for four more years on Thursday, expect the liberal punditocracy to once again attribute his victory to the rise of the Christian right in America.
The only difference is that we now know they were wrong.
Polling and analysis done by the Pew Research Centre and other experts since election night has shown that, in fact:
(a) Bush made relatively bigger gains with non-religious voters than religious ones.
(b) The percentage of voters who identified themselves as evangelicals, at 23%, was exactly the same in 2004 as in 2000.
(c) There was no increase in the percentage of pro-life voters.
(d) Overall, voters in 2004 were slightly less religiously observant than in 2000.
(e) Bush did not do significantly better in 2004 compared to 2000 in the 11 states which held gay marriage referendums.
(f) While Bush did slightly better with evangelicals compared to 2000, only 14% of all Bush supporters said they voted for him primarily because of his religious faith, compared to 29% who cited his leadership and 27% his stand on the issues.
''Every election year, we in the commentariat come up with a storyline to explain the result, and the storyline has to have two features. First, it has to be completely wrong. Second, it has to reassure liberals that they are morally superior to the people who just defeated them ... This theory certainly flatters liberals, and it is certainly wrong ... (The) same insularity that caused many liberals to lose touch with the rest of the country now causes them to simplify, misunderstand and condescend to the people who voted for Bush.''
By The Christian right in America
