Town of Braintree

I hope

you are correct. We have had enough!!!!!!

HE IS ABSOLUTELY ACCURATE



Score
0 0



State Votes
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
California 55
Colorado 9
Conneticut 7
Delaware 3
District of Columbia 3
Florida 27
Georgia 15
Hawaii 4
Idaho 4
Illinois 21
Indiana 11
Iowa 7
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Maine - At Large* 2
Maine - 1st District* 1
Maine - 2nd District* 1
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Michigan 17
Minnesota 10
Mississippi 6
Missouri 11
State Votes
Montana 3
Nebraska - At Large* 2
Nebraska - 1st District* 1
Nebraska - 2nd District* 1
Nebraska - 3rd District* 1
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 4
New Jersey 15
New Mexico 5
New York 31
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Ohio 20
Oklahoma 7
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Rhode Island 4
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
Vermont 3
Virginia 13
Washington 11
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10
Wyoming 3

0 0
270 out of 538 votes are needed to win.





* The states of Maine and Nebraska have a different method of apportioning their electoral votes than the ''winner-take-all'' system used in rest of the country. Rather than awarding all of their electoral votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote, in Maine and Nebraska, only two of the votes are awarded to the overall winner of the state. The rest of the electoral votes are awarded individually based on the winner of the popular vote in each of the states' congressional districts.

THE LIBERAL POLLSTER

THE LIBERAL POLLSTER Mark Mellman

The uphill fight is impossible to predict now

(SOUNDS LIKE A CONCESSION TO ME)

You, dear reader, have the advantage over me. I am writing this Sunday, before the election takes place. The opportunities for me to look foolish are legion. So I will resist both predictions and triumphalism.

For months, though, I?’ve been assessing President Bush?’s vulnerability, but win or lose, it is important to acknowledge the daunting challenge Sen. John Kerry faces.
Republicans have been spinning this fact for months and they are right.

First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and they are correct.

Democrats have spoken often and powerfully about the nation?’s economic problems. But by historical standards, they are not that bad. The ?“misery index?” is 7.8 today but was 20.5 when Jimmy Carter was defeated. Economic models of elections show Bush winning 52-58 percent of the vote.
One could simply suggest that the models are off, but there is more to it than that.

These models essentially confirm that the level of economic pain we are now feeling is not commensurate with voting an incumbent president out of office.
Unemployment and inflation are lower than they have been when incumbents have been defeated. Growth is higher than it has been when presidents have been tossed out of office.
The war in Iraq is obviously hurting Bush, but some of these models also incorporate casualty figures as a proxy for war. These models tend to suggest that Bush should win by a large margin. Nearly 50,000 killed in Vietnam did not prevent Nixon?’s reelection.
Bush?’s approval ratings are also indicative of the difficulties Kerry faces. It is certainly true that the average incumbent who has been reelected has had a much higher job approval rating ?— 62 percent. Bush?’s approval rating is now about 49 percent. Yet the last time an incumbent was beaten ?— Bush?’s father ?— just 33 percent approved of his performance. When Carter was defeated, he had an approval rating of only 37 percent. On average, incumbents who have been defeated have only had a 38 percent job rating. Bush is 10 points higher than that.

We often point to the fact that a majority of Americans say the country is seriously off on the wrong track. Fifty-two percent hold that view. But when Bush Sr. was defeated, 72 percent thought the country was seriously off on the wrong track.

Only 39 percent give the economy a positive rating, a problem for the incumbent.

Yet in 1992, only about 10 percent were positive about the economy.

Taking all that and more into account, an expert forecasting model suggests that Bush will get 51.6 percent of the two-party vote.

So while Bush faces formidable obstacles, not the least of which is Kerry himself, the senator also faces a strong candidate. Bush is weaker than some other incumbents but much stronger than those who have been defeated.

You soon will know whether Kerry?’s appeal was strong enough to overcome the incumbent?’s strength. I think I will be smiling broadly. But it has been an uphill fight.


By Mark Mellman

The Post-Election Peace Pledge

The Post-Election Peace Pledge

: I take this pledge (inspired by a few of the posts below below):

After the election results are in, I promise to:
: Support the President, even if I didn't vote for him.
: Criticize the President, even if I did vote for him.
: Uphold standards of civilized discourse in blogs and in media while pushing both to be better.
: Unite as a nation, putting country over party, even as we work together to make America better.

What did I miss?


By Criticize the President