I hope those of you interested in the election got a good night's sleep. This year the networks say they have learned from the mistakes they made in 2000, when they prematurely called Florida first for Al Gore and then for George W. Bush. As a result, they will exercise an abundance of caution in calling states and declaring winners of key Senate and gubernatorial races.
But this correspondent will tread where others fear to. In consultation with Henry Olsen, my good friend of 20 years' standing, and someone who knows more about American politics than anyone I know other than Michael Barone (legendary author of the Almanac of American Politics), I am making the following predictions:
Popular vote: Bush 50.0%, Kerry 48.5%, Nader 1.0%, others 0.5%.
Electoral vote: Bush 296, Kerry 242.
Battleground states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin for Bush; Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania for Kerry.
The polls are pretty consistent. Mr. Bush is at 48% or above in all of them that push leaners. Now that Zogby has reported a tied race on Monday night, no national poll of consequence has Mr. Kerry in the lead. (Marist has him up 49% to 48%, but it would be historic if Marist were the only pollster to call the election correctly.) More than half have the race in a tie, and a couple have Bush in front by a few. I would normally give the race to Mr. Bush by three points, but I forecast a slightly tighter race because the few undecided votes are likely to break in Mr. Kerry's direction since they have resisted going with the incumbent for so long.
The Republicans currently control the Senate 51-48, with Jim Jeffords of Vermont sitting as an ''independent'' who caucuses with the Democrats. There's pretty strong agreement on which seats are in play, and which ones are likely to switch parties. Everyone thinks Illinois will switch to the Democrats and Georgia will become a Republican pickup. That leaves the following seats in doubt
By with Henry Olsen,
But this correspondent will tread where others fear to. In consultation with Henry Olsen, my good friend of 20 years' standing, and someone who knows more about American politics than anyone I know other than Michael Barone (legendary author of the Almanac of American Politics), I am making the following predictions:
Popular vote: Bush 50.0%, Kerry 48.5%, Nader 1.0%, others 0.5%.
Electoral vote: Bush 296, Kerry 242.
Battleground states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin for Bush; Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania for Kerry.
The polls are pretty consistent. Mr. Bush is at 48% or above in all of them that push leaners. Now that Zogby has reported a tied race on Monday night, no national poll of consequence has Mr. Kerry in the lead. (Marist has him up 49% to 48%, but it would be historic if Marist were the only pollster to call the election correctly.) More than half have the race in a tie, and a couple have Bush in front by a few. I would normally give the race to Mr. Bush by three points, but I forecast a slightly tighter race because the few undecided votes are likely to break in Mr. Kerry's direction since they have resisted going with the incumbent for so long.
The Republicans currently control the Senate 51-48, with Jim Jeffords of Vermont sitting as an ''independent'' who caucuses with the Democrats. There's pretty strong agreement on which seats are in play, and which ones are likely to switch parties. Everyone thinks Illinois will switch to the Democrats and Georgia will become a Republican pickup. That leaves the following seats in doubt
By with Henry Olsen,
