Muscatine

"And the stock market went up 3% today. "

In anticipation of the end of the reign of the Obumbler and his crooked and foolhardy friends.  It is well known that the stock market indices are based on the predicted future, not the present.

Don't forget the other guy who watched it all on TV so he knows it's all true.    I think it was "justcurious".   But maybe it's the same guy.   They seem to be aware that this can be done.

But how far into the future?   A few days?   A week?   A month?

A lot of people thought this rise was because a deal was reached on the European debt problems.   Something that happened before most of the rise took place.

You just can't comprehend this can you. 

It's not what is happening now that influences the markets.  It is the anticipated outcome from what is happening now and in the past.  In other words, investors place bets or withdraw bets based on their idea about the future, not the past.

If you got out of the market you didn't do so just because of what has happened up to now, but because you anticipated a negative trend in the future.

Likewise, if you invested in the stock market today, you invested based on your prediction that good things will happen from now on until you sell again.

All this is related to what investors think will happen in the future. 

As we get near the 2012 elections, if the polls show Obama going down to defeat, the stock market will rise.  Once he is defeated it will rise precipitately based on the anticipated well being of the nation and economy.