Obama popularity reflected in fewer registered Democrats
NEBRASKA Democrat Ben Nelson is leaving the U.S. Senate when his term expires next year. The only Democratic member of the Oklahoma congressional delegation is leaving the House when his term expires in 2012.
Nationally, the Democratic Party is having a hard time registering new voters. The party's “market share” of new registrations has fallen significantly since 2008, when Barack Obama rode a wave of new Democratic registrations in battleground states.
Obama is part of the equation in the decision of Democrats such as Nelson and U.S. Rep. Dan Boren of Muskogee to retire from Congress. They have other reasons, of course, but the party's popularity in Oklahoma, Nebraska and other red states is certainly a factor.
Democrats still hold a registration advantage, even in Oklahoma, but the advantage is fading. What's more, party registration isn't a firm indicator of who will win an election. Despite Oklahoma having more Democrats than Republicans, all statewide offices are filled by Republicans and Republicans are in solid control of the Legislature.
Obama may win another term next year despite these trends because swing states won't necessarily embrace the Republican nominee. But the battle in battleground states will be fierce. A key indicator of enthusiasm — or lack thereof — for Obama is the slide in new Democratic registrations — just as the Democratic surge in 2008 presaged his victory that year.
In 2008, 49 percent of new voter registrations were in the Democratic column. This year the figure is 32 percent. Only 25 percent of new registrations were in the GOP camp in 2008. This year it's 34 percent. Independents, a critical bloc for Obama in 2008 and for the 2012 nominees, accounted for 26 percent of new registrations in 2008 and 33 percent this year.
In Oklahoma, the decline of Democratic registrations and a surge of independent registrations are trends worth watching. From 2001 to 2011, the number of Oklahoma voters registered as Democrats went from 55 percent to 48 percent. During those 10 years, the number of Oklahoma voters registered as Republicans rose from 36 percent to 41 percent, while the number independents rose from 9 percent to 11.5 percent.
Over that decade, the number of registered Democrats in Oklahoma slipped below 1 million. Not since 1980, when the overall population was smaller, has the Democratic registration failed to top 1 million.
In 1964, the last time Oklahoma gave its electoral votes to the Democratic presidential nominee (Lyndon Johnson), Democratic registration accounted for 81 percent of the total. In 2008, when Obama lost in all 77 counties, the number was down to 50 percent. It's been falling ever since.
About six months before the 2010 election, state Senate Democratic Leader-elect Andrew Rice said Republicans were “fatally overconfident” about the election. That would be the one in which Republicans took it all.
Rice left the Senate this year before his term expired, citing personal reasons. A more apt metaphor for his party's direction and prospects could not be found.
