"Why not compare murder rates where a gun is used to where a car is used. Guns come out a lot worse."
Why not? Well, because it is more relevant to make the following comparisons (guns used for violence vs. guns used for self defense):
* Roughly 16,272 murders were committed
in the United States during 2008. Of these, about 10,886 or 67% were committed
with firearms.[11]
* A 1993 nationwide survey of 4,977
households found that over the previous five years, at least 0.5% of households
had members who had used a gun for defense during a situation in which they
thought someone "almost certainly would have been killed" if they "had not used
a gun for protection." Applied to the U.S. population, this amounts to 162,000
such incidents per year. This figure excludes all "military service, police
work, or work as a security guard."[12]
* Based on survey data from the U.S.
Department of Justice, roughly 5,340,000 violent crimes were committed in the
United States during 2008. These include simple/aggravated assaults, robberies,
sexual assaults, rapes, and murders.[13] [14] [15] Of these, about 436,000 or
8% were committed by offenders visibly armed with a gun.[16]
* Based on survey data from a 2000 study
published in the Journal of Quantitative Criminology,[17] U.S. civilians use guns to
defend themselves and others from crime at least 989,883 times per year.[18]
The referenced notes:
[11] Report: "2008 Crime
in the United States, Expanded Homicide Data – Table 9." Federal Bureau of
Investigation, U.S. Department of Justice, September 2009. http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/offenses/expanded_...
NOTE: This table states that 66.9% of all
murders were committed with firearms, but this data does not account for all
homicides – only those for which a "Supplemental Homicide Report" was filed
(correspondence from U.S. Department of Justice to Just Facts, January 15,
2010). Hence, this table shows 14,180 total murder victims, while the UCR states: "An estimated 16,272 persons
were murdered nationwide in 2008." Assuming the proportion of murders
committed with firearms is approximately the same regardless of whether or not a
Supplemental Homicide Report is filed:
16,272 ×.669 ≈ 10,886 people
murdered with firearms
[12] Paper: "Armed
Resistance to Crime: The Prevalence and Nature of Self-Defense with a Gun." By
Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, Fall
1995. http://www.law.northwestern.edu/jclc/backissues/86-1.html
Page 160: "The present survey ... was
carefully designed to correct all of the known correctable or avoidable flaws of
previous surveys.... We interviewed a large nationally representative
sample...."
Pages 160-161: "A professional telephone
polling firm, Research Network of Tallahassee, Florida, carried out the sampling
and interviewing."
Page 161: "Each interview began with a
few general 'throat-clearing' questions about problems facing the R's community
and crime. The interviewers then asked the following question: 'Within the past
five years, have you yourself or another member of your household
used a gun, even if it was not fired, for self-protection or for the
protection of property at home, work, or elsewhere? Please do not include
military service, police work, or work as a security guard.'"
Page 172: "While estimates of DGU
frequency are reliable because they are based on a very large sample of 4,977
cases, results pertaining to the details of DGU incidents are based on 213 or
fewer sample cases, and readers should treat these results with appropriate
caution."
Page 163: "An additional step was taken
to minimize the possibility of DGU [defensive gun use] frequency being
overstated. The senior author went through interview sheets on every one of the
interviews in which a DGU was reported, looking for any indication that the
incident might not be genuine. ... There were a total of twenty-six cases where
at least one of these problematic indications was present. ... Estimates using
all of the DGU cases are labeled herein as 'A' estimates, while the more
conservative estimates based only on cases devoid of any problematic indications
are labeled 'B' estimates."
Page 176: "Another way of assessing how
serious these incidents appeared to the victims is to ask them how potentially
fatal the encounter was. We asked Rs [respondents]: "If you had not used
a gun for protection in this incident, how likely do you think it is that you or
someone else would have been killed? Would you say almost certainly
not, probably not, might have, probably would have, or almost certainly
would have been killed?" Panel K indicates that 15.7% of the Rs stated that they
or someone else "almost certainly would have" been killed...."
NOTES: Table 2 on page 184 lists the
results of the survey. In keeping with Just Facts' Standards of Credibility, we are
using the most cautious plausible interpretations of this data, which is for
households (as opposed to individuals) and a five-year recall period based "only
on cases devoid of any problematic indications." As shown in this table, this
amounts to 3.456% of households or 1,029,615 defensive gun uses per year.
Accounting for the 15.7% figure from page 176 (cited above): 1,029,615 defensive
gun uses per year × .157 of respondents stating someone "almost certainly would
have been killed" if they "had not used a gun for protection" = 161,650 such
incidents. Using percentages for the same calculation: 3.456% × .157 =
0.54%.
[13] Web page:
"Definitions." U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics. Last
revised May 3, 2010. http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=tdtp
Aggravated
assault
(1) Intentionally and
without legal justification causing serious bodily injury, with or without a
deadly weapon or (2) using a deadly or dangerous weapon to threaten, attempt, or
cause bodily injury, regardless of the degree of injury, if any. Includes
attempted murder, aggravated battery, felonious assault, and assault with a
deadly weapon.
Robbery
Completed or attempted
theft, directly from a person, of property or cash by force or threat of force,
with or without a weapon, and with or without injury.
Simple assault
Attack without a weapon
resulting either in no injury, minor injury (for example, bruises, black eyes,
cuts, scratches or swelling) or in undetermined injury requiring less than 2
days of hospitalization. Also includes attempted assault without a
weapon.
[14] NOTE: The U.S. government publishes two primary
crime measures: The FBI's "Uniform Crime Report" (UCR) and the Department of
Justice's "National Crime Victimization Survey" (NCVS). The UCR is based upon
incidents reported to law enforcement authorities and does not account for
unreported crimes. The NCVS is based upon data gathered from extensive
interviews, and hence, provides more accurate estimates of crime than the UCR.*
The NCVS, however, does not provide data on: murders and nonnegligent
manslaughters (because the victims cannot be interviewed), crimes committed
against children under the age of 12, and commercial crimes such as robberies of
banks and convenience stores.† Therefore, Just Facts uses the NCVS data as a
baseline and extrapolates the missing information from UCR and NCVS data.
* Book: Firearms and Violence: A
Critical Review. By the Committee to Improve Research and Data on Firearms
and the Committee on Law and Justice, National Research Council of the National
Academies. Edited by Charles F. Wellford, John V. Pepper, and Carol V. Petrie.
National Academies Press, 2005.
Page 21: "The National Crime
Victimization Survey ... is widely viewed as a "gold standard for measuring
crime victimization."
Page 30: "Although the NCVS data do many
things right, they are, like any such system, beset with methodological problems
of surveys in general as well as particular problems associated with measuring
illicit, deviant, and deleterious activities...."
† Report: "The Nation's two crime
measures." U.S. Department of Justice, October 2004. http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/ntcm.pdf
The U.S. Department of
Justice administers two statistical programs to measure the magnitude, nature,
and impact of crime in the Nation: the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program and
the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Each program produces valuable
information about aspects of the Nation's crime problem. Because the UCR and
NCVS programs are conducted for different purposes, use different methods, and
focus on somewhat different aspects of crime, the information they produce
together provides a more comprehensive panorama of the Nation's crime problem
than either could produce alone. …
The FBI's UCR program …
collects information on the following crimes reported to law enforcement
authorities: homicide, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary,
larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson. …
[Regarding the NCVS:] Two
times a year, U.S. Census Bureau personnel interview household members in a
nationally representative sample of approximately 42,000 households (about
75,000 people). Approximately 150,000 interviews of persons age 12 or older are
conducted annually. …
[The NCVS] does not measure
homicide or commercial crimes (such as burglaries of stores). …
Second, the two programs
measure an overlapping but non-identical set of crimes. The NCVS includes crimes
both reported and not reported to law enforcement. The NCVS excludes, but the
UCR includes, homicide, arson, commercial crimes, and crimes against children
under age 12.
[15] CALCULATION:
4,856,510 NCVS violent
victimizations (not including: (a) fatal crimes, (b) crimes committed against
children under the age of 12, and (c) commercial crimes)*
+ (a) 16,272 UCR murders and
nonnegligent manslaughters (i.e., fatal crimes)†
+ (b) 244,866 nonfatal
violent victimizations committed against children under age 12
(extrapolated)‡
+ (c) 222,125 commercial
robberies (extrapolated)§
≈ 5,339,773 violent
criminal victimizations
* Bulletin: "National Crime Victimization Survey: Criminal
Victimization, 2008." By Michael R. Rand. Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S.
Department of Justice, September 2009. http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv08.pdf
Page 1: "Violent crimes" include
"rape/sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated and simple assault."
Page 1, Table 1 shows 4,856,510 violent
criminal victimizations, of which 551,830 are robberies.
† Report: "2008
Crime in the United States, Murder." Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S.
Department of Justice, September 2009. http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/offenses/violent_crime/murder_homicide.html
"The FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR)
Program defines murder and nonnegligent manslaughter as the willful
(nonnegligent) killing of one human being by another. … An estimated 16,272
persons were murdered nationwide in 2008."
NOTE: Although the verbiage above could
imply that "nonnegligent manslaughter" and "murder" are categorized as separate
offenses, this is not the case. As explained in correspondence from the U.S.
Department of Justice to Just Facts (January 15, 2010), "These two are counted
as one offense, and numbers defining them are not separated." Hence, the 16,272
murders cited above also includes nonnegligent manslaughters.
‡ Report: "2008 Crime in the United States,
Expanded Homicide Data – Table 9." Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S.
Department of Justice, September 2009. http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/offenses/expanded_...
NOTE: Extrapolating data from this source
(further details available upon request),
approximately 4.8% of murder victims were under the age of 12. If a similar
percentage of nonfatal violent victimizations occur in this age group:
y = violent
victimizations, ages 0-11
y ≈ (0.048 × 4,856,510 NCVS violent victimizations) / (1 -
0.048)
y ≈ 244,866
§ Report:
"2008 Crime in the United States, Robbery." Federal Bureau of Investigation,
U.S. Department of Justice, September 2009. http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/offenses/violent_crime/robbery.html
NOTE: Excluding hold-ups of lemonade
stands, it is fairly safe to assume there are few commercial robberies of
children under the age of 12. Extrapolating data from this source (further
details available upon request), approximately 28.7%
of robberies are commercial and 71.3% are private. Applying these proportions to
the NCVS data:
y = commercial
robberies
y ≈ (0.287 × 551,830 NCVS (private) robberies) / (1 - 0.287)
y ≈ 222,125
[16] CALCULATION:
343,550 NCVS violent victimizations in which the offender was armed
with a firearm (not including: (a) fatal crimes, (b) crimes committed against
children under the age of 12, and (c) commercial crimes).*
+ (a) 10,886 murders and
nonnegligent manslaughters in which a firearm was used (extrapolated)†
+ (b) 17,385 nonfatal
violent victimizations committed against children under age 12 in which the
offender was armed with a firearm (extrapolated)‡
+ (c) 53,310 commercial
robbery victimizations in which the offender was armed with a firearm
(extrapolated)§
+ 10,706 rapes/sexual
assaults in which the offender was armed with a firearm (extrapolated)#
≈ 435,837 violent
victimizations in which the offender was armed with a firearm
* Bulletin: "National Crime
Victimization Survey: Criminal Victimization, 2008." By Michael R. Rand. Bureau
of Justice Statistics, U.S. Department of Justice, September 2009. http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv08.pdf
Page 6: "An offender was armed with a
gun, knife, or other object used as a weapon in an estimated 20% of all
incidents of violent crime in 2008 (table 7)."
Page 6, "Text table 3. Firearm use in
violent crime, 1999 and 2008": violent victimizations involving a firearm =
343,550
Page 6, "Table 7. Presence of weapons in
violent incidents, by type, 2008":
- percentage of robberies
involving a firearm = 24%
- number of rapes/sexual
assaults involving a firearm = 0 {Note: Just Facts does not take this figure at
face value and instead, extrapolates an estimated number.}
NOTE: With regard to guns and other
weapons, this report employs the words "presence" and "use" interchangeably.
This is evident by the fact that "Text table 3. Firearm use in violent crime,
1999 and 2008" and "Table 7. Presence of weapons in violent incidents, by type,
2008" cite the same figure (303,880) for the number of violent firearm
incidents. Thus, the word "use" does not necessarily mean the offender fired the
gun. Instead, the word "use" means the offender was armed with a gun.
† Report: "2008 Crime in the United
States, Expanded Homicide Data – Table 9." Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S.
Department of Justice, September 2009. http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/offenses/expanded_...
NOTE: This table states that 66.9% of all
murders were committed with firearms, but this data does not account for all
homicides – only those for which a "Supplemental Homicide Report" was filed
(correspondence from U.S. Department of Justice to Just Facts, January 15,
2010). Hence, this table shows 14,180 total murder victims, while the UCR states: "An estimated 16,272 persons
were murdered nationwide in 2008." Assuming the proportion of murders
committed with firearms is approximately the same regardless of whether or not a
Supplemental Homicide Report is filed:
16,272 ×.669 ≈ 10,886 people
murdered with firearms
‡ 2008 NCVS data shows 4,856,510 nonfatal violent victimizations of people ages
12 and over, of which 343,550 or 7.1% involved
the use of firearms. Based upon the extrapolation above, roughly 244,866 nonfatal violent victimizations were
committed against children under the age of 12. Assuming the proportion of
victimizations committed with firearms is approximately the same regardless of
whether or not the victims are under the age of 12 (probably a high
estimate):
244,866 × .071 ≈ 17,385
nonfatal violent victimizations committed against children under age 12 in which
the offender was armed with a firearm
§ Based upon the extrapolation above,
roughly 222,125 commercial robberies were
committed in 2008. 2008 NCVS data shows 24% of noncommercial robberies are
committed using firearms. Assuming the proportion of robberies committed with
firearms is approximately the same regardless of whether or not they are
commercial (probably a low estimate):
222,125 × .24 ≈ 53,310
commercial robbery victimizations in which the offender was armed with a firearm
# 2008 NCVS data shows zero rape/sexual assaults committed by an offender
armed with a gun, and the 2008 UCR explicitly states, "Weapon data are not
collected for forcible rape offenses." [Report: "2008 Crime in the United
States, Violent Crime." Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Department of
Justice, September 2009. http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/offenses/violent_crime/index.html]
Hence, Just Facts extrapolates the number of rape/sexual assaults involving
firearms based upon several relatable NCVS and UCR metrics (further details
available upon request).
[17] Paper: "Measuring
Civilian Defensive Firearm Use: A Methodological Experiment." By David McDowall
and others. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, March 2000. http://www.springerlink.com/content/rngn3274255v6j67/
Page 7:
The most important of the
other set of questions asked:
Within the past 12
months, have you yourself used a gun, even if it was not fired, to protect
yourself or someone else, or for the protection of property at home, work, or
elsewhere?
This is largely identical to
the standard question from the other surveys, but the reference period is 1 year
rather than 5 years. The question also refers to the respondent alone, rather
than to all household members.
Page 8: "Because gun ownership is a
strong correlate of firearm resistance (e.g., Kleck and Gertz, 1996, p. 187), we
selected a national sample from commercial lists of likely gun owners. Of the
eventual respondents, 83% did report the presence of a gun in their
home."
Page 8: "This left 3006 households, an
81% response rate. The interviewers selected a single respondent from within
each household. In a random 75% of the cases, the interviewers asked for the
male head of household. In the remaining 25% they asked for the female
head."
Page 10: "Table II. Types of Incidents of
Firearm Defense...."
[18] As shown in the
previous footnote, this study did not use a nationally representative
population. To correct for this, Just Facts used the following equation:
t = c ×
g × p / [n × r × [[s × d / f] +
[(1-s) × (1- d) / (1- f)]]]
Where:
t = Total defensive
gun uses in a nationally representative population
c = Defensive gun
uses in this survey, civilian against offender, clear = 48
g = Minimum
proportion of households with a gun = 0.34*
p = Population, ages
25-70 = 158,799,375†
n = Survey sample
size = 3006
r = Proportion of
survey respondents with a gun in their home = .83
s = Proportion of
survey respondents who are female = .25
d = Proportion of
defensive gun uses by females = .46‡
f = Proportion of
population (ages 25-70) who are females = .51†
NOTES:
In keeping with Just Facts' Standards of Credibility, we
have given preferentiality to figures that are contrary to our viewpoints and
used the most cautious plausible interpretations of this data. Details of how we
have done this are explained in the following notes.
* This equation operates under the
conservative assumption that respondents in homes without firearms had no
defensive gun uses, even though such people may have used others' firearms for
defense. In a range of surveys stretching over the previous 30 years, 34% is the
lowest figure we have found for the percentage of homes with guns. [Paper:
"Estimating intruder-related firearm retrievals in U.S. households, 1994." By
Robin M. Ikeda and others. Violence and Victims, Winter 1997. Pages
363-372. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9591354
Page 369: "A second concern about
representativeness of the sample is that the prevalence of households with
firearms in our survey (34%) is lower than that reported in polls (41%) for the
same year (Maguire & Pastore, 1995). ... It is similar, however, to that
observed in the 1994 National Health Interview Survey (37%) (personal
communication, National Center for Health Statistics) and another national
telephone survey about using firearms for protection (36%) (Kleck & Gertz,
1995)."]
† Data file: "U.S. Interim Projections by
Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 2000-2050, Detailed Data File." Population
Projections Branch, U.S. Census Bureau, May 11, 2004.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/...
NOTE: The survey in the footnote above
selected respondents by asking for the male/female head of household. Just Facts
used a conservative estimate of this population by only including people from 25
to 70 years old.
‡ Paper: "Armed Resistance to Crime: The
Prevalence and Nature of Self-Defense with a Gun." By Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz.
Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, Fall 1995. http://www.law.northwestern.edu/jclc/backissues/86-1.html
Page 178: "Perhaps the most surprising
finding of the survey was the large share of reported DGUs [defensive gun uses]
that involved women. Because of their lower victimization rates and lower gun
ownership rates, one would expect women to account for far less than half of
DGUs. Nevertheless, 46% of our sample DGUs involved women."
