Do you know your neighbors as well as you think? We wave, nod, ask how they are doing, but very few of us really know much about our neighbors. My recent tenure as a Crew Leader with the U.S. Census Bureau really made me realize that most people know very little about their neighbors.

In the 38118 Zip Code there are 113 registered sex offenders.  How many live near you? At least 8 of the 113 registered sex offenders in 38118 live within the boundaries of the Parkway Village East Neighborhood Watch area. They are both male and female and their offenses range from statutory rape to aggravated rape.

I strongly urge everyone to follow this link where you can enter your address in order to map the offenders living in your area. The results may surprise you.

Keeping an eye on sex offenders can be a really bad idea if it takes your eye off your child. New York's University at Albany reported for a twenty year period more than 95% of arrests for sex crimes were first-time-offenders,  not registered sex offenders.  Indiana Department of Corrections reported for 2008 that "only" 1.5% of Indiana sex offenders returned for a sex crime within three years of their release.  Ohio, in a ten-year study reported that two-thirds of sex offenders who recidiviated did so within three years. US Dept of Justice found that 93% of child sexual assaults were committed by either family (34%) or acquaintances (59%).

Adam Walsh's mother left him alone at a toy display while she went just around the corner, out of sight, for no more than five or ten minuets.  They found his severed head a few weeks later.

Carlie Brucia was walking home alone after spending the night at a friend house. A business' parking lot surveilance camera caught a man grabbing her arm and leading her away.  They found her body a few days later behind a church.

Sommer Thompson ran ahead of the group she was supposed to be walking home from school with.  He body was found in a land-fill a couple of weeks later. There were more than 160 sex offenders living within 10 miles of her home.

Samantha Runnion was playing in her front-yard while her grandmother was inside.  They found her body along a rural rode the next day.

What these and too many other tragedies have in common is that the men who commited these crime had never been convicted of any sex crime.  You must have been convicted of a sex crime to be listed on a sex offender registry and these people weren't. 

The point is that watching registered sex offenders places your focus on a very small fraction of the threat to your children.  Watching your child covers all threats.

Jaycee Dugard, the woman recovered at age 29 after being abducted at age 11?  Her step-father saw the grey sedan make a u-turn at Jaycee's school bus stop, a woman get out and pull her into the car and take off.  He just wasn't close enough to get a license plate number or do anything else to stop it.

I noticed the zip was for Memphis, not Indiana.  Tennessee statistics are 56% for any crime inlcuding technical violations of parole.  They do not differentiate new sex offenses.  US Dept. of Justice reported that from 9,691 sex offenders released from prisons across 15 states in 1994, 43% re-arrested for any crime and 5.3% for a new sex crime.  Those ratios are repeated by several other states so I think it safe to assume such would be the case in Tennessee.