Mitchell Park West Neighbors

John,  Thank you for this information.   I am not sure I have fully absorbed it, but it is moot for US, as Pete is not interested in using solar on this large scale.   One of our neighbors has covered his roof(s) with panels, and if you haven't talked to him, you might want to.  He could give you actuals instead of hypotheticals, and his figures should be reliable as he has worked for decades as a tax preparer.  His is very personable and generous:   his name is Mike Sauer, and he is listed in the Tempe phone book.  His property is at the end of 11th Street, on Hardy. 

Pat Konomos

Re: Solar Power

I can vouch for Mike Sauer being a standup guy.  He was a merit badge counsellor for my son's scout troop.

A very good friend of mine installed a 3.9 kw array for about $10,000 after rebates, etc.  John has assumed that the cost of conventional electricity will be changing. Yes, solar is expensive, but that's only because we have not and are still not paying for the damage we are doing by burning coal and gas.  Instead, we are spreading those costs among all the folks downwind of the power plants and even worldwide, when mercury is considered.  At some point, there will be a cost attached to electricity to pay for mitigation of the pollution, including carbon dioxide (regardless of your beliefs about climate change, it will come).  At that point, solar will be a bargain.  In the mean time, solar is becoming more cost competitive.  It may not be as far off as one thinks.

Actually, the breakeven point analyses I mentioned the solar system suppliers will provide DO assume the cost of electricity will be changing at +4% per year. So for the 5.5 kW system I discussed as an example (quoted for my house both by American Solar and by Solar City) the solar cost per kWh at year 20 is $0.091 and for the utility (APS in my case) $0.274. So the saving at year 20 is estimated to be $19,455 with the breakeven at year 10. I guess my wife and I have a problem with having to wait until year 10 to breakeven before we start saving any money. We can't even guarrantee we'll still be living in this house then! And the often quoted increase in value of the house if it has solar seems ephemeral with no hard data to back it up. Plus all these savings assume there have been no equipment failures in that time, whereas the inverter will probably have to be replaced by year12, at a cost of $3000.

One word of warning: Solar City, and more recently American Solar, offer a 15 year lease option as an alternative to buying, with minimal downpayment. That option is a complete rip off!! A retired banker friend analysed their lease contract and condemned it. And I analysed the financial terms and wrote their sales rep telling him exactly how it was a rip off. He basically agreed (I don't think he works there anymore). With a lease, they get all the utility and tax rebates, not you. And they increase the lease payment each year (by 51% over the 15 year lease). And their buy-back  option at lease end (year 15) values the equipment at almost the new cost -- -- $18,000 for my 5.5 kW case.